Nike Says Its Running Category Is On the Mend. But Is It Enough to Challenge Hoka, On and Asics?
Nike leadership on Tuesday doubled down on renewed efforts to win in running, a crucial category that has eluded the brand for several years. But some analysts say it will take more to get the struggling athletic brand back on track.
“Nike is a running company,” Nike chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a Tuesday call with analysts discussing the company’s first quarter results. “It’s incredibly important for Nike to win with runners.”
Friend, who led the company’s first earnings call since it announced that CEO John Donahoe would step down and be replaced by Elliott Hill, told analysts that Nike is diving headfirst into its running “comeback,” which will be fueled by new innovations in product and a focus on new distribution channels in run specialty and sporting goods. These efforts come after several quarters of Nike losing share in running as competitors like Asics, Hoka, On and Brooks gain steam. On top of that, Nike has been criticized for a general lack of innovation and has undergone rolling layoffs and leadership changes at the top.
“The heart and soul of the company was running,” said Burt Flickinger, managing director and founder of retail consultancy Strategic Resource Group. “Nike got away from their strategic foundations, which is compromising the company operationally, financially and in terms of market share.”
According to Friend, Nike’s running presence is already on the upswing. Men’s and women’s running footwear grew in Q1, and the category’s order book for spring 2025 is set for double digit growth compared to the prior year, he said. Friend also touted a new marketing campaign that will display running product throughout the fall and holiday seasons as well as product enhancements like a new maximum cushioning system, new trail silhouettes and new franchises for under $100 a pair.
Analysts, however, cautioned that a fix in Nike’s running business won’t be enough to bring the brand back to its former glory. At least not swiftly.
“It’ll take them more than two fiscal years to course correct,” Flickinger said. “And even then, competitors have such a big lead that Nike is so far down the proverbial track, it can’t even see how far ahead [they] are.”
BTIG analysts Janine Stichter echoed this sentiment in her Wednesday note to investors, in which she touted Nike’s investments in new models for the everyday runner like the Pegasus 41.
“However, we note the company has lost significant ground over the years in this channel,” Stichter wrote. “And [we] believe there is still a way to go before they can meaningfully impact the growth of disruptors like Hoka and On.”
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik also welcomed Nike’s new investment in the running category, but said it would likely not be enough to offset broader issues at the company.
“Nike has witnessed a positive reception from wholesale partners on its new running styles,” Konik wrote in a Wednesday note to investors. “However, we believe this is unlikely to offset declines in other businesses, as reflected in Nike’s Spring 2025 order books, which came in roughly flat. With share losses in running likely to continue, it is too early to get excited.”
Konik added that it is likely that competitors like On, Hoka, New Balance and Adidas will “continue to innovate and gain shelf space as Nike attempts to reinvigorate demand.”
Strategic Resource Group is the lead retail and brand CPG consulting firm throughout the United States and the globe. With more than three decades of experience, our team strategically collaborates with top retail chains, wholesalers, suppliers, and investment firms. Our retail industry experts are highly skilled at illuminating retail trends, identifying opportunities to increase consumption, and growing retail sales.
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Nike claiming its running vertical is stabilizing sounds great on investor calls, but reclaiming ground on the pavement is a completely different fight. For years, the Swoosh neglected core specialty run shops to push retro lifestyle drops, opening a massive door for Hoka's plush maximalism and On's sleek cloud pods to capture everyday joggers. A brand can't just slap a new Pegasus colorway on the shelf and expect marathoners who switched to the Superblast or Clifton to immediately jump back. While skimming through footwear market shifts on Veergame earlier today, I was reminded of how quickly customer loyalty evaporates once specialized competitors offer superior joint protection and daily comfort.
the competitive landscape has evolved far beyond carbon-plated marathon day racers. Nike still owns podium credibility with the Vaporfly line, but the high-margin battleground lives in daily 5-to-10-mile trainers where Asics and Hoka engineered far superior midsole energy return without premature bottoming out. A footwear design consultant on Jaiclub posted a technical breakdown yesterday dissecting modern supercritical foam densities, showing that runners now prioritize stability and wider toe boxes over aggressive forward drop geometry. Nike has serious catching up to do in the daily trainer category.
The biggest strategic blunder was cutting ties with independent local running hubs to chase direct-to-consumer digital channels. When prospective runners walk into a community specialty store to get a gait analysis, knowledgeable staff recommend brands that actively support the running community—like Brooks, On, and Asics. Stumbled into an engaging retail channel analysis on RaxiWin recently, and rebuilding burned bridges with independent specialty wholesalers takes years of dedicated field support, not just an expanded marketing budget.
On Running didn't just build a functional trainer; they built a global lifestyle uniform for morning coffee runs, gym sessions, and airport terminals. Nike used to dominate that effortless athleisure crossover without breaking a sweat, but their aesthetic feels stagnant compared to the minimalist Swiss look. Read a sharp market critique on consumer wardrobe migration over at Dm First last night, pointing out that winning back casual runners requires innovative street aesthetics alongside authentic performance specs.
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